Notes on the Market

Notes on the Market

What If the Massive AI Spend Doesn’t Pay Off?

Companies in the U.S. have been shelling out records amount of capital on building out AI, and it's not just Big Tech. What happens if the large Capex doesn't pay off?

Michele Chiacchio, CFA's avatar
Michele Chiacchio, CFA
Sep 30, 2025
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Last month, MIT researchers released a study showing that 95% of organizations—out of the 300 they analyzed—receive no return on their investment in AI. This is despite enterprises pouring an estimated $30–40 billion into generative AI. If accurate, the finding is significant: it implies billions of dollars are being misallocated rather than put to prod…

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