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A New Format for Notes on the Market
Notes on the Market is evolving, and I wanted to take a moment to explain what that looks like going forward.
Apr 2
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Michele Chiacchio, CFA
3
1
March 2026
The Importance of Incremental Return on Capital
Why the next dollar of capital matters more than the last
Mar 31
•
Michele Chiacchio, CFA
4
3
Energy Supply Constraints Are a Real Headwind
Why the energy constraint is a real structural issue, not a cyclical nuisance, and where the opportunity lives
Mar 26
•
Michele Chiacchio, CFA
5
1
4
January 2026
Outlook for 2026 - Part 2
The economy is providing a narrow path for markets, with little room for error
Jan 14
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Michele Chiacchio, CFA
4
6
Outlook for 2026 - Part 1
In traditional financial newsletter fashion, I'd like to provide my view on what could* be in store for the year.
Jan 7
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Michele Chiacchio, CFA
6
2
2
December 2025
The Tech Giants Are No Longer Asset-Light Businesses
Since the start of tech supremacy, the most attractive feature was their high-growth, asset-light business models. With trillions projected to be spent…
Dec 5, 2025
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Michele Chiacchio, CFA
8
1
2
November 2025
Are We in for a Market Correction?
A growing set of serious valuation metrics reveal a deep disconnect between equity prices and long-term value
Nov 14, 2025
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Michele Chiacchio, CFA
6
1
3
October 2025
When the Engine Stalls: Cracks in the Auto Industry
From subprime delinquencies to falling used-car values, stress is spreading across the auto sector, a warning sign for the broader consumer credit…
Oct 21, 2025
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Michele Chiacchio, CFA
5
4
Cracks in the Credit Boom
The recent bankruptcies of Tricolor Holdings and First Brands Group have raised fears of contagion—but are these failures signs of systemic risk or just…
Oct 15, 2025
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Michele Chiacchio, CFA
6
1
3
The K-Shaped Economy
From job creation to consumer spending, the data points to a widening gap that challenges the durability of U.S. growth.
Oct 7, 2025
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Michele Chiacchio, CFA
5
4
September 2025
What If the Massive AI Spend Doesn’t Pay Off?
Companies in the U.S. have been shelling out records amount of capital on building out AI, and it's not just Big Tech. What happens if the large Capex…
Sep 30, 2025
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Michele Chiacchio, CFA
3
1
4
Utah Medical Products, Inc. (NASDAQ: UTMD) - Part 2
The investment model: LBO or Active Value
Sep 24, 2025
•
Michele Chiacchio, CFA
4
2
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