Notes on the Market

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Energy Supply Constraints Are a Real Headwind
Why the energy constraint is a real structural issue, not a cyclical nuisance, and where the opportunity lives
 • Michele Chiacchio, CFA
Outlook for 2026 - Part 2
The economy is providing a narrow path for markets, with little room for error
 • Michele Chiacchio, CFA
Outlook for 2026 - Part 1
In traditional financial newsletter fashion, I'd like to provide my view on what could* be in store for the year.
 • Michele Chiacchio, CFA
The Tech Giants Are No Longer Asset-Light Businesses
Since the start of tech supremacy, the most attractive feature was their high-growth, asset-light business models. With trillions projected to be spent…
 • Michele Chiacchio, CFA
Are We in for a Market Correction?
A growing set of serious valuation metrics reveal a deep disconnect between equity prices and long-term value
 • Michele Chiacchio, CFA
When the Engine Stalls: Cracks in the Auto Industry
From subprime delinquencies to falling used-car values, stress is spreading across the auto sector, a warning sign for the broader consumer credit…
 • Michele Chiacchio, CFA
Cracks in the Credit Boom
The recent bankruptcies of Tricolor Holdings and First Brands Group have raised fears of contagion—but are these failures signs of systemic risk or just…
 • Michele Chiacchio, CFA
The K-Shaped Economy
From job creation to consumer spending, the data points to a widening gap that challenges the durability of U.S. growth.
 • Michele Chiacchio, CFA
What If the Massive AI Spend Doesn’t Pay Off?
Companies in the U.S. have been shelling out records amount of capital on building out AI, and it's not just Big Tech. What happens if the large Capex…
 • Michele Chiacchio, CFA
Stagflation Risks in the Economy
Inflation remains uncontrolled and the fed just lowered rates on concerns for the job market, does this mean a real risk of stagflation?
 • Michele Chiacchio, CFA
The Fed's Current Predicament
The data behind the Fed's "risk management cut" to rates
 • Michele Chiacchio, CFA
Inflation Is Still Above The Fed’s Target
The economy is not out of the woods yet, inflation is still running hot (but not burn yourself hot) by the Fed’s standards and we could see a…
 • Michele Chiacchio, CFA
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